Getting the Most out of the Weekend Update
Each weekend we will send you, via email, our "Weekend Update Report". Our goal is to get this report to you on Saturday, but the timing of the delivery depends a great deal on how much analysis we must accomplish for the upcoming week. If there is very little activity (new trades and/or new portfolio strategies), then in all likelihood, this update will come out Saturday afternoon or evening. If, on the other hand, we have a lot of new trades planned and/or a lot of changes to stop loss strategies or changes in portfolio holdings, the report may not be completed until Sunday... and, sometimes, not until late on Sunday.
It is very important that you understand that these Weekend Update Reports DO NOT contain specific, actionable trades. All planned portfolio trades are listed on the TurnerTrends website on the portfolio detail page. Below are links to the current portfolio detail pages. Access to these pages is predicated upon your subscription.
Below is a typical example of our Weekend Update.
As you read through this report, it is important to understand its function and how to get the most out of it. The following describes the salient components of this report:
- At the top of the report are links that will take you directly to various locations on the TurnerTrends website, including: The Home page, the page that lists all of our products, the portfolio page, the StockMasterPro page, and the About Us page.
- The text portion of the report is a brief note from Mike Turner, the president of TurnerTrends, Inc. In the text, Mike reports on his view of the market, some general comments about the portfolios, and his outlook for the immediate future of the market.
- We always include the current "Average Annual Return" chart of all of our portfolios. This chart allows you to compare the average return of each portfolio and, for perspective, the annual return of the S&P 500.
- We also include a "Portfolio Performance" table, where we show you how we have done for the year, lifetime, annual, the number of positions filled in each portfolio, the average time we hold stocks in each portfolio, and the start date of each portfolio. This is a great table to use to compare your performance to that of our portfolios. If you are matching us trade-for-trade, you should be matching our return.
- A critically important component of the Weekend Update is the Bull/Bear Rating and Investor Sentiment chart. These two snapshots of the market are extremely accurate, historically, and are very useful in determining how bullish or bearish the market is for the upcoming week, and the directional attitude of investors.
- Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the Weekend Update is your notification that the data on the website have been updated for upcoming week. Once you receive this report, you should log onto the website to see the planned trades, if any, the updated stop loss settings, and all updates to the StockMasterPro database.
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Sunday September 23, 2007 |
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Home | Our Products | Portfolios | StockMasterPro | About Us
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Hello YourName:
It's hard not to be thoroughly enjoying this market. We are making a lot of money right now (see below) and unless we have a flare-up in Iran (a real possibility), we should continue to do well.
We are nicely positioned, globally; if you consider all 4 portfolios as a whole. But, even if you are just in one or two of my portfolios, we are still fairly well diversified, globally.
I am of the opinion that we should be 100% invested right now, with about 50% of our investments with heavy exposure to Asia, 30% in other non-US oriented equities, and the rest in US focused stocks and ETFs.
I am concerned about a possible escalation of hostilities with Iran that could have a very significant impact on the price of oil. Companies that are heavily levered to the price of oil and gas look attractive in this environment, but safer plays would be those that have less Middle-East exposure and more US and Canada exposure.
I am also squeezing the stops up as tight as I can get them and still have room for some expected profit taking. The quicker we can get our stops above our basis in each position, the better. Octobers in the past have seen some significant market swings. It is better to be putting money in the bank if we hit a down-turn than just riding it out. I suspect that if the price of oil gets above $90 a barrel, we will see some serious volatility, if not an outright market reversal into a potential cyclical bear market. Add to this the possibility of a recession and that means we need to be looking for every opportunity to protect profits.
And, we have a LOT of profit in the portfolios right now. Just take a look at the Performance Table, below:
Portfolio Performance Table as of 9/21/2007
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Master Portfolio
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YTD
Net
Return
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YTD
Cash
Profit
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Trailing
12 Months
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Average
Yearly
Return
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Life
Time
Return
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Nbr
Hldngs
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Avg
Age
(Days)
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Start
Date
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10 Must Follow Rules
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+16.36%
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+13.73%
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+16.36%
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+40.90%
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+16.36%
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3
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51
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5/1/2007
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ETF Total Return
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+17.42%
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+10.91%
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+23.67%
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+22.38%
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+53.72%
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10
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41
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5/1/2005
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Market Trend
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+14.87%
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+8.09%
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+14.03%
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+18.85%
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+107.97%
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20
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73
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1/2/2002
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Stock and Option
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+17.65%
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+16.97%
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+24.38%
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+26.30%
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+34.58%
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2
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24
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6/1/2006
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At this writing, we have the following level of unrealized gains in the portfolios:
- 10 Must Follow Rules: +7.4%
- ETF Total Return: +6.4%
- Market Trend: +9.5%
- Stock and Option: +2.6%
Any time a portfolio has more than about 5% in unrealized gains, I start to get very concerned about losing that profit. Here's what I mean... If we want to make at least 20% per year in our investments, then having more than 5% sitting in unrealized (paper) profits, means that more than 25% of our goal for the year is at risk. That's a lot of risk. Therefore, when we get this much paper profit on the books, I like to look for ways to pull that profit off the table and put it in the bank for future investing.
But, it is hard to be selling when we continue to make more and more money each week... even if it is, primarily, paper profits. Take, for example, this week's Bull/Bear Rating (see below). My Investor Sentiment data have pushed the rating from neutral last week to a very bullish [ + 2 ] this week. The ratio of new Bull Signals to new Bear Signals is almost 4-to-1 in favor of the Bulls. The upcoming week looks to be reasonably bullish.
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TurnerTrends
Bull/Bear Forecast
For the Upcoming Week
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| My Bull/Bear Rating is based on this past week's ratio of new Buy Signals to new Short Sell signals. The data represented in the Investor Sentiment chart generally provides me with a 90-day directional view of the market. The slopes of the upper and lower shaded area on the right side of the chart are generally very accurate in helping determine the over-all bullishness or bearishness of the market. Both of these charts provide a directional edge on how aggressive I want to be to add new positions and how aggressive I want to be for an over-all stop loss strategy. |
Take a look at the gray circle in the above chart. You can see that number of new Short Sell Signals is just about to go below the number of new Buy Signals. And although the trend is moving lower for new Buy Signals, it is not moving nearly so rapidly as the new Short Sell Signals. This tells me that the general mood of investors is dramatically improving and we should see the market moving up over the next few weeks, barring any major geo-political flare up.
As such, I am putting my limit orders this week very near or at the Friday closing prices. I also plan to put the ETF Total Return and the Market Trend fully into the market, with 100% equities and 0% cash.
Have a great week in the market!
By Mike Turner, President
TurnerTrends, Inc.
PLEASE NOTE:
The website database has been updated.
Each portfolio has been updated and is available for your review, including: Market Trend, ETF Total Return, Stock and Option, and 10 Must Follow Rules.
The StockMasterPro Tool is also available, including updated charts and stop loss settings.
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Neither TurnerTrends, Inc. nor its employees, including Mike Turner are a registered financial advisory. The information provided is NOT for the purchase or selling of securities.
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