The Cycle Project
Welcome to the Cycle Projection Analysis Project (CycleProphet).
We are looking for 500 investors to participate as beta testers for a new and innovative financial modeling project. The beta test group of 500 is almost full. So after you read the following and find that you are interested in participating, you can let us know your desire by sending me an email (instructions, below). I suspect we will reach the 500 limit before mid-November '09.
This project is designed to be a truly significant scientific advancement in the modeling of future financial events.
Participation in the CycleProphet Project does NOT obligate you to anything. Nor will we hound you to subscribe to anything. Sending us your name and email address only means you will be included in the beta group email distribution; you will be asked to provide feedback (optional); and, we will include you in my email distribution for my weekly newsletter, "Mike Turner's Market Report".
CycleProphet, Inc., is a new company, headquartered in Austin, Texas. It is not a part of TurnerTrends, Inc. Its primary objective is to develop an entirely new forecasting model for individual investors. TurnerTrends is sponsoring and participating in some of this effort. Our knowlege and background in the development of the StockMasterPro and ETFMasterPro analysis tools makes our relationship with CycleProphet, Inc. mutually beneficial.
Below is an early example of the kind of charts that will be produced by CycleProphet. Below the chart you will find additional information about how to read this chart and some background on the study of cycles.
Reading a Cycle Chart... With regard to the Cycle Chart on SLV, above, take note of how closely the Cycle Data match the historical activity of the actual price of the Silver ETF, SLV. You might think, when first observing this chart that the Cycle Data (red line) and the SLV pricing data (black line) are not all that closely aligned. But, if you look at the forecasted tops (6/3, 9/11/, 10/14) and bottoms (7/14 and 11/13), you can see that the model has done (and, hence believed that it will do) a very good job of telling us when major trends are about to change.
At Circle A, for example... On October 14, the Cycle Data indicate that the pricing trend of SLV has topped and will now begin to slide lower until 11/13. As an investor (or trader), this means we should seriously consider taking profits and either moving out of SLV or even to go so far as to short the ETF. This is only a 3-week trade, though. As you can see from the chart above, this downward trend is likely to reverse by 11/13.
Am I advocating that we blindly look at this chart and invest in the market accordingly; without regard to any other data, observations or opinions? Absolutely not! But, if I owned silver at Circle A, I would be very wary of holding it for the next few weeks. And, in my more aggressive portfolios, I might seriously consider shorting silver.
Some Background... The origin of the theory of business cycles can be traced back to the 18th century, when economists such as Juglar, Kitchin and Kondratief became famous for finding specific cycles in business activities. The big breakthrough in modern cycle analysis came when ER Dewey first became interested in cycles while Chief Economic Analyst of the Department of Commerce in the early 1930's. With the huge event of the 1929 market crash, President Hoover wanted to know why there were not more warning signs; especially of such a cataclysmic economic event. He tasked Dewey with finding a way to forecast events like the crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression.
Once Dewey became involved in this journey of discovery, his research led him to the little known study of cycles. His efforts were just getting started when Roosevelt replaced Hoover in the White House. Unfortunately, Roosevelt did not share Hoover's enthusiasm for Dewey's research and, as such, did not continue the project. This did not stop Dewey, however.
Dewey rapidly became a cycle analysis zealot, eventually believing that all significant events in human history can be reasonably accurately predicted through cycle analysis. Dewey devoted his life to the study of cycles, claiming that "everything that has been studied has been found to have cycles present." He carried out extensive studies of cyclicity in economic, geological, biological, sociology, physical sciences and other disciplines. In 1941 he formed the Foundation for the Study of Cycles with a board that included distinguished scientists and industrialists to act as a central clearing house of cycles studies from diverse areas.
As a result of his research, Dewey asserted that seemingly unrelated time series often had similar cycle periods present and that when they did, the phase of these cycles was most nearly the same (cycle synchrony). He also asserted that there were many cycles with periods that were related by powers or products of 2 and 3. Practical cycle theory assumes that some cycles consistently persist in data and are repetitive, and these cycles will continue to behave similarly in the future. Cycles that have performed well in the past should continue to perform well into the future, if they are genuine. Certainly, it is postulated, these are the types of cycles that can be used for forecasting.
A cycle is a rhythmic fluctuation that repeats over time with reasonable regularity. When it is sufficiently regular and persists over a long enough span of time, it cannot reasonably be the result of chance. And the longer a non-chance rhythm continues, the more predictable it becomes.
There are some interesting characteristics of cycles:
- Cycles persist without change of period for as far back as there are data. After distortion, cycles will revert to the pre-distortion pattern.
- Cycles of any period tend to have counterparts in other phenomena, and even in other disciplines.
- Cycles of the same period tend to synchronize, or crest at the same calendar time, regardless of phenomena.
We believe that the technical study of cycles is a valuable tool in the projection of financial markets, stocks, commodities, futures, etc.
The Plan... The CycleProphet management have formed a development team which is working on the new CycleProphet Product ("the Product").
The Product, when completed, will have the following functionality:
- It will be completely Internet based. There will be no program to download.
- Access will be obtained via a Username and Password.
- A fixed list of charts of the highest interest level will be included. At this writing, the list is limited to 20. You will be very involved in the composition of these 20 charts (more on this, below).
- The Product will have multiple "Releases". Each Release will incorporate some significant technical aspect or algorithm to improve the forecasts and/or user interface. "User interface" is how the website interacts with you, including ease of use, understandability, functionality, etc. Your feedback in this development effort will be very important.
- CycleProphet should have its website and Version 1.0 of the product available by the end of 2009.
Pricing and Your Discount...
As mentioned above, there is no obligation for you to participate in this Project or to subscribe to the Product when it is released. You will be able to see the output and use the Product for free during the time prior to the release of the Product to the public. Your ideas and suggestions will be a significant part of how the Product is developed.
By the time the Product is released to the public, you will explicitly know whether the Product is of value to you and your investment strategies. As a thank you for your participation, you will be offered a 50% discount on an annual subscription rate. It will be completely up to you, whether or not you want to take advantage of the discount at that time.
Final pricing has not been set by the CycleProphet Marketing team, but regardless of the rate, you will have the option to subscribe at half the normal rate.
If you want to be a part of this "Initial Product Offering" (IPO) Project, send an email to : mike.turner@turnertrends.com
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